Grey Swan 

A large scale impactful event that, with first order second order effects, impacts over a billion people in surprising ways. Though the event is surprising, it has actually been predicted or was likely to happen based on people that call themselves futurists and economists arguing both sides of every argument. Gray swans by default tend to be negative. Covid-19 was a graceful event has defined by the The Grey Swan Guild, a global think tank that studies these types of occurrences along with Grey Rhinos, Green Swans, White Alligator, and Black Jellyfish.

ROB: I'M PRETTY SURE THAT WAS A "GREY SWAN". NO ONE EXPECTED THAT ROCKET TO CRASH INTO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION.

SEAN: Stop shouting and think. According to my quick research on perplexity and our website Prediction Market.. there was a 5% chance that one of the rockets or shuttles would crash into the ISS it's just a matter of gravity. Those are actually pretty good odds I can't believe it wasn't more defense on the ISS!

Grey Swan by robtyrie March 29, 2024

Grey Swan Guild 

The Grey Swan Guild. Is a virtual Think Tank that was formed in 2020 by a group of people around the world responding to large scale events with better tools and better communications to become more resilient. There goal is to make the world a better place through Sensemaking and Futures thinking.

We wanted to join the Grey Swan Guild in order to build out a "GSG Thousand Day Radar" ... it's one of their tools to help access the future and become more resilient. It's like TED but without all the glitz and flash.... It's the 5 weeks not the 15 minutes.

Grey Swan Guild by robtyrie March 29, 2024