The idea that, if you mitigate the consequences of a particular type of
accident, then that type of
accident will necessarily occur much more frequently, more than negating the initial benefit.
The
CF assumes that human nature is perverse and seeks to equalize consequences. Hence, improved automotive technologies such as air bags, ABS,
space frames, etc. will be offset (or more than offset) by careless driving, leading to increased highway fatalities.
FALSIFICATION: Empirical evidence shows that, while reducing consequences increases risky behavior, overall
safety/health outcomes are better. Insurance companies with a stake in reducing claims verify this.
More generally, the CF confuses all forms of risk-taking, such as faster highway speeds, with fecklessness. Increased speed and convenience (for motorists) has utility; and there is no principle in welfare economics that says risk-taking will increase by an amount sufficient to offset the
safety measures.