The idea that, if you mitigate the consequences of a particular type of accident, then that type of accident
will necessarily occur much more frequently, more than negating the initial benefit.
The
CF assumes that human nature is perverse and seeks to equalize consequences. Hence, improved automotive technologies such as air bags,
ABS, space frames, etc.
will be offset (or more than offset) by careless driving, leading to increased highway fatalities.
FALSIFICATION: Empirical evidence shows that, while reducing consequences increases risky behavior, overall safety/health outcomes are better. Insurance companies with a stake in reducing claims verify this.
More generally, the
CF confuses all forms of risk-taking, such as faster highway speeds, with fecklessness. Increased
speed and convenience (for motorists) has utility; and there is no principle in
welfare economics that says risk-taking
will increase by an amount sufficient to offset the safety measures.