(noun)
parameters and/or random noise added to a predictive model to enable the model to appear to include a wider variety of outcomes than the fundamental mechanism of the model actually includes
(verb)
to add spurious adjustable parameters and/or random noise to a predictive model to enable the model to appear to include a wider variety of outcomes than the fundamental mechanism of the model actually includes
to artificially inflate your estimate of a very unlikely event occurring to ~30% with no justification within your model, simply so you can cover your ass should the unlikely event occur, all while retaining the option to claim that you predicted, with better than 2/3rd probability, that the unlikely event would not occur.
parameters and/or random noise added to a predictive model to enable the model to appear to include a wider variety of outcomes than the fundamental mechanism of the model actually includes
(verb)
to add spurious adjustable parameters and/or random noise to a predictive model to enable the model to appear to include a wider variety of outcomes than the fundamental mechanism of the model actually includes
to artificially inflate your estimate of a very unlikely event occurring to ~30% with no justification within your model, simply so you can cover your ass should the unlikely event occur, all while retaining the option to claim that you predicted, with better than 2/3rd probability, that the unlikely event would not occur.
“After realizing her model to predict economic growth didn’t include enough details, and was therefore predicting too narrow a range of possible outcomes, she nate-silver-thirty (ed) her model to get a more satisfactory appearing distribution of outcomes.”
by stats_definer August 28, 2020
Get the nate-silver-thirty mug."do i go naked. do i speak french-russian. do i remove my piercings. do i offer to work for free. do i say please and thank you."
"woman, you are point zero, no, point minus thirty-free."
"woman, you are point zero, no, point minus thirty-free."
by Krkič September 25, 2020
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by y.east on tha track June 26, 2021
Get the shoot the thirty mug.The time that you must appear dressed and presentable on a company Zoom call. Te time you have to brush your hair and put on real clothes, not pajamas.
by SnowPatrol October 19, 2021
Get the Zero Pants Thirty mug.last namethirty is a time when any particular individual shows up to work. Might be 9am. Might be 9:30am. Depends on a number of factors and the individual (i.e. border, traffic, weather, illness, bad burrito, etc.).
Employee 1: Where's last name at? What time is he coming in?
Employee 2: I don't know.. maybe last namethirty? He texted last night and mentioned something about having some bad Mexican food at this new place... might be a bad burrito slowing him down...
Employee 2: I don't know.. maybe last namethirty? He texted last night and mentioned something about having some bad Mexican food at this new place... might be a bad burrito slowing him down...
by Kap21 November 12, 2021
Get the [last name]thirty mug.by LeSouffleDeVersailles February 2, 2025
Get the I generated Thirty Five back smackers. mug.1- Period between 00:00 (midnight) until 05:59 (5:59 AM).
2- Period between 00:00 (midnight) until 06:00 (6:00 AM).
3- Period between midnight until dawn.
2- Period between 00:00 (midnight) until 06:00 (6:00 AM).
3- Period between midnight until dawn.
Zero-dark-thirty.
by ÝÝÝ ÝÝÝ ÝÝÝ ÝÝÝ February 3, 2026
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