a graph correlating inflation against unemployment rates. Using a horizontal axis to represent unemployment, and a vertical axis to represent inflation, A.W. Phillips found the rate of inflation and unemployment in Great Britain for every year between 1861 and 1957. When he had plotted the 97 dots on the chart, he had a rather neat hyperbola convex to the origin of the graph.
In other words, if the rate of unemployment was low, the rate of inflation was high, and vice versa. At the time, economists concluded that this was a logical outcome of both being influenced by the rate of interest: if interest rates were low, then unemployment would be low and prices would rise, but if interest rates were high then there would be lots of unemployment and workers would not have much money to spend... so prices would go down.
Unfortunately, when economists tried to design policy around this concept they disrupted the smooth relationship. In the years since the 1960's, there has not been a straightforward relationship, and Keynesian economics has had to be drastically revised to a post-Phillips Curve regime.
There is some correlation between inflation and unemployment, but the correlation is much more complicated than originally thought. It is quite possible to have high unemployment and high inflation (i.e., a high "misery index").
In other words, if the rate of unemployment was low, the rate of inflation was high, and vice versa. At the time, economists concluded that this was a logical outcome of both being influenced by the rate of interest: if interest rates were low, then unemployment would be low and prices would rise, but if interest rates were high then there would be lots of unemployment and workers would not have much money to spend... so prices would go down.
Unfortunately, when economists tried to design policy around this concept they disrupted the smooth relationship. In the years since the 1960's, there has not been a straightforward relationship, and Keynesian economics has had to be drastically revised to a post-Phillips Curve regime.
There is some correlation between inflation and unemployment, but the correlation is much more complicated than originally thought. It is quite possible to have high unemployment and high inflation (i.e., a high "misery index").
The Phillips Curve implies a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. Unfortunately, this trade-off may sometimes represent more of a Faustian bargain.
by Abu Yahya February 15, 2009
A problem faced by a person with specialized expertise in any area, in which the implications of the opinion are unpopular and likely to be rejected by those who need that expertise. For example, economists may be likely to know that, in some cases, a "market solution" is inherently impossible, but proposing an alternative is an exercise not merely in futility, but career suicide among those who employ economists. It arises because the expert knows more about the field than her employers.
The statistician was asked by his boss to make a case for risk homeostasis, but knowing better, he faced an expert's dilemma: telling the truth would get him tarred as a 'socialist.'
by abu yahya June 23, 2008
(FINANCE) a type of financial derivative which two parties "swap," or exchange, the streams of income (or payments) from two different sources. The actual instrument is created by a third party, such as an investment bank.
The most familiar version of the swap is the interest rate swap, in which the holder of a fixed rate loan and the holder of an adjustable rate loan agree to exchange revenue streams.
The variety of swaps available is massively greater than with options or futures; essentially, swaps exist for every arbitrage opportunity that any combination of markets provides; the market for swaps is huge.
The most familiar version of the swap is the interest rate swap, in which the holder of a fixed rate loan and the holder of an adjustable rate loan agree to exchange revenue streams.
The variety of swaps available is massively greater than with options or futures; essentially, swaps exist for every arbitrage opportunity that any combination of markets provides; the market for swaps is huge.
BILL: Why do firms buy swaps? Why don't they just sell the loans they have to other banks, or whatever?
ANNA: One is that swaps are a method of hedging risk; you hold the bond in case the price goes up, but you buy interest rate swaps to protect against having average rates in your portfolio that are two high or two low.
ANNA: One is that swaps are a method of hedging risk; you hold the bond in case the price goes up, but you buy interest rate swaps to protect against having average rates in your portfolio that are two high or two low.
by Abu Yahya April 05, 2010
(ECONOMICS) ratio between a country's foreign exchange rate and the real purchasing power of its local currency.
The actual exchange rate between (say) the yen and the US dollar tells you nothing about the relative strength of the two currencies. The US dollar buys 92.57 yen (17 May 2010) right now, which sounds like a lot. But $100, converted into ¥9,257, only buys $71 worth of actual goods & services. In order for the yen:dollar exchange rate to reflect real purchasing power of the two currencies, the US dollar should be able to buy ¥130.
The real exchange rate for the US dollar against the Japanese yen is 1.41 (meaning the yen is costlier than the dollar in real terms).
The actual exchange rate between (say) the yen and the US dollar tells you nothing about the relative strength of the two currencies. The US dollar buys 92.57 yen (17 May 2010) right now, which sounds like a lot. But $100, converted into ¥9,257, only buys $71 worth of actual goods & services. In order for the yen:dollar exchange rate to reflect real purchasing power of the two currencies, the US dollar should be able to buy ¥130.
The real exchange rate for the US dollar against the Japanese yen is 1.41 (meaning the yen is costlier than the dollar in real terms).
The recent (March-May) fall of the euro against the US dollar has brought the real exchange rate of the two currencies into approximate parity.
by Abu Yahya May 17, 2010
(US LAW) a legal ruling that consists of a decision in which the two parties (the plaintiff and the defendant) consent to some action by the defendant in exchange for a suspended sentence. For example, a husband who is a defendant in a domestic violence case may agree to psychiatric counseling in exchange for not going to prison for assaulting his wife.
The agreement has to be reached beforehand by the parties and then the court may (or may not) approve of the agreement. When it does, that's a consent decree.
The agreement has to be reached beforehand by the parties and then the court may (or may not) approve of the agreement. When it does, that's a consent decree.
WASHINGTON, July 14 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The Justice Department today announced a court-approved consent decree which resolves a lawsuit against the state of New York and its public university systems for their failure to provide voter registration services at offices serving students with disabilities at each public university and college campus in New York State.
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Under the consent decree, by the start of the 2010-2011 school year, disability services offices at each public university and college campus in the state will provide voter registration services to students with disabilities.
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Under the consent decree, by the start of the 2010-2011 school year, disability services offices at each public university and college campus in the state will provide voter registration services to students with disabilities.
by Abu Yahya July 15, 2010
(FINANCE) using financial derivatives to guarantee against losses. Typically used by non-traders, such as companies engaged in international commerce, to protect themselves against foreign exchange risk (i.e., the possibility that a customer's currency will decline in value).
BILL: You know, I think that financial derivatives are just a huge sinkhole. The people who trade them are just a bunch of wankers who move bits of paper around but add nothing of value.
ANNA: Well, they do provide some important benefits.
BILL: Name one.
ANNA: Covering risk, for one. If you're an airline, you need those aviation fuel options.
ANNA: Well, they do provide some important benefits.
BILL: Name one.
ANNA: Covering risk, for one. If you're an airline, you need those aviation fuel options.
by Abu Yahya April 15, 2010
phenomenon in which greater input of effort, money, etc. yields smaller results. Crucial part of the idea is that if you're using x to get y results (where y is the thing you want). then additional input a will yield additional results b, but not in the same proportion as before.
On average, before, you put in x to get y, so your yield was y/x. But if you increase x by amount a, then your results will be y + b, where
(y + b)/(x + a) < y/x
and this will only get worse.
Diminishing marginal returns (DMR) is used to explain why the supply curve in economics slopes upward, i.e., increasing the quantity supplied requires an increased price of most things.
Sometimes DMR is more than offset by "economies of scale," which allows more of a thing to be supplied more cheaply than a small amount.
On average, before, you put in x to get y, so your yield was y/x. But if you increase x by amount a, then your results will be y + b, where
(y + b)/(x + a) < y/x
and this will only get worse.
Diminishing marginal returns (DMR) is used to explain why the supply curve in economics slopes upward, i.e., increasing the quantity supplied requires an increased price of most things.
Sometimes DMR is more than offset by "economies of scale," which allows more of a thing to be supplied more cheaply than a small amount.
At first his flowers and treats swept her off her feet, but then he had to do more and more lavish things to please her. It was a classic case of diminishing marginal returns.
by Abu Yahya June 03, 2009