Definitions by abu yahya
rational expectations hypothesis
*noun*; a method of representing the economy as the sum of many identical individuals and firms, each represented by a system of mathematical equations. The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) takes its name from the premise that economic actors, i.e., everyone, do not make consistent errors about the present or future behavior of markets.
REH was devised mainly as a rebuke to Keynesian economics, and in particular, the strategy of fiscal policy or monetary policy.
According to the REH, fiscal policy does not alter aggregate demand because the "average" person recognizes that her lifetime income is not increasing--so she needs to save rather than spend the stimulus money, in anticipation of higher taxes in the future.
At the same time, monetary policy does not work because it relies on lowering interest rates to make more money available; more money means inflation, but people have to be deceived into thinking prices for their product are going up, so they will expand production. According to REH, people or firms will figure this out, and see increased demand as mere inflation. Instead of increasing output and employment, they'll want to raise prices so they can meet their future bills.
According to REH, both monetary and fiscal policy rely on illusions to work; and since people (on average) will make rational estimates o the future, they will defeat these illusions.
REH was devised mainly as a rebuke to Keynesian economics, and in particular, the strategy of fiscal policy or monetary policy.
According to the REH, fiscal policy does not alter aggregate demand because the "average" person recognizes that her lifetime income is not increasing--so she needs to save rather than spend the stimulus money, in anticipation of higher taxes in the future.
At the same time, monetary policy does not work because it relies on lowering interest rates to make more money available; more money means inflation, but people have to be deceived into thinking prices for their product are going up, so they will expand production. According to REH, people or firms will figure this out, and see increased demand as mere inflation. Instead of increasing output and employment, they'll want to raise prices so they can meet their future bills.
According to REH, both monetary and fiscal policy rely on illusions to work; and since people (on average) will make rational estimates o the future, they will defeat these illusions.
The rational expectations hypothesis states that we can break the realization of a return into an expected return that depends on the current information set and an unexpected component that depends only on new information.
rational expectations hypothesis by Abu Yahya March 3, 2009
fiscal policy
*noun*, efforts by the government to intentionally run a deficit in order to stimulate the economy during a recession. Loosely associated with Keynesian economics.
According to basic economic theory, recessions occur because there is a basic mismatch between aggregate demand and potential output. One approach for solving this is for the government to buy more goods and services than it has revenues to cover, thereby creating conditions in which effective demand is greater than the stock of goods currently in business inventory (given recessionary prices).
Under a stimulus, the jolt of extra money in circulation creates inflation, which has the effect of lowering real prices. Customers then respond to the {de facto} price reduction by buying more, which leads to more hiring, thence to more effective demand, thence to economic recovery.
Another reason fiscal policy stimulates the economy is that the private sector is not investing or consuming its own output. Increased taxes would simply reduce private consumption, so those cannot be increased; but spending is increased to fill the breach.
According to basic economic theory, recessions occur because there is a basic mismatch between aggregate demand and potential output. One approach for solving this is for the government to buy more goods and services than it has revenues to cover, thereby creating conditions in which effective demand is greater than the stock of goods currently in business inventory (given recessionary prices).
Under a stimulus, the jolt of extra money in circulation creates inflation, which has the effect of lowering real prices. Customers then respond to the {de facto} price reduction by buying more, which leads to more hiring, thence to more effective demand, thence to economic recovery.
Another reason fiscal policy stimulates the economy is that the private sector is not investing or consuming its own output. Increased taxes would simply reduce private consumption, so those cannot be increased; but spending is increased to fill the breach.
I think it is possible that fiscal policy will have even more 'oomph' in this situation," Christina Romer, who heads the Council of Economic Advisers, told an economics conference.
"When households and businesses are liquidity-constrained by reduced lending, any money put in their pockets is more likely to be spent," she said.
--Reuters, "White House's Romer: Stimulus may pack more punch" (3 March 2009)
"When households and businesses are liquidity-constrained by reduced lending, any money put in their pockets is more likely to be spent," she said.
--Reuters, "White House's Romer: Stimulus may pack more punch" (3 March 2009)
fiscal policy by Abu Yahya March 3, 2009
liquidity preference
*noun*; the tendency for the public to want to hold income in cash relative to its willingness to hold it as interest-bearing savings (bonds).
The liquidity preference is analogous to a supply curve for lendable funds. If the price for lendable funds--that is to say, the interest rate--is high, then the amount be be large. If the interest rate is low, then the public will be more inclined to hoard income as cash.
Income held as cash is not spent on goods and services, so if the amount increases abruptly then there will be a recession. If it is held in some interest-bearing form, then it can be spent on fixed capital, thereby increasing output and employment.
During a recession, if the liquidity preference is high, a lot of money is going to be held as cash. One could free up some cash for job-creating investment by raising interest rates, but that would eradicate a lot of business opportunities. So monetary authorities monetize debt instead, creating a new supply of credit to replace the savings lost by falling interest rates.
The liquidity preference is analogous to a supply curve for lendable funds. If the price for lendable funds--that is to say, the interest rate--is high, then the amount be be large. If the interest rate is low, then the public will be more inclined to hoard income as cash.
Income held as cash is not spent on goods and services, so if the amount increases abruptly then there will be a recession. If it is held in some interest-bearing form, then it can be spent on fixed capital, thereby increasing output and employment.
During a recession, if the liquidity preference is high, a lot of money is going to be held as cash. One could free up some cash for job-creating investment by raising interest rates, but that would eradicate a lot of business opportunities. So monetary authorities monetize debt instead, creating a new supply of credit to replace the savings lost by falling interest rates.
...An individual’s liquidity preference is given by a schedule of the amounts of his resources, valued in terms of money or of wage-units, which he will wish to retain in the form of money....
John M. Keynes, *General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money* (1936), Ch.13
John M. Keynes, *General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money* (1936), Ch.13
liquidity preference by Abu Yahya March 3, 2009
Stiftung
German, *noun*: "foundation"; a type of business organization dating from the late 19th century in which one or more companies are owned by a foundation. The foundation, in turn, is governed not by shareholders, but by whomever is chartered as a stakeholder in the firm, such as workers, financial planners, local residents of the town where the firm operates, and so on.
The biggest company owned by a foundation is Robert Bosch GmBH, which is 92% owned by Robert Bosch Stiftung (Stuttgart, Germany). Bertelsmann AG (Guetersloh, Germany) is owned by the Bertelsmann-Stiftung, which appears to possess the largest endowment of any German foundation; the affiliated company owns an enormous media empire.
Plural: Stiftungen
The biggest company owned by a foundation is Robert Bosch GmBH, which is 92% owned by Robert Bosch Stiftung (Stuttgart, Germany). Bertelsmann AG (Guetersloh, Germany) is owned by the Bertelsmann-Stiftung, which appears to possess the largest endowment of any German foundation; the affiliated company owns an enormous media empire.
Plural: Stiftungen
The prevalence of the *Stiftung* in German industry probably contributed to the excellence of German manufactures, since the affiliated companies were managed by engineers.
moral panic
an overwrought public anxiety that evil things are afoot. The term seems to have been coined by Jock Young in 1971.* The most obvious example of an ancient moral panic is the blood libel.
Other famous examples of moral panics include the 1955 Boise scandal, in which three cases of lewd conduct between men and teenaged boys, plus a noxious editorial, triggered a general war against homosexual men. In the early 1930's, the Federal Bureau of Narcotics (FBN) launched a public relations effort to have federal laws passed banning the use of marijuana; it was driven by a jurisdictional struggle between Harry Anslinger (FBN) and J. Edgar Hoover (FBI). The campaign was a success; it not only achieved the desired legislation, but created a wave of mass hysteria about the "threat" of marijuana.
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* Goode & Ben-Yehuda, *Moral Panics* (1994), p.12.
Other famous examples of moral panics include the 1955 Boise scandal, in which three cases of lewd conduct between men and teenaged boys, plus a noxious editorial, triggered a general war against homosexual men. In the early 1930's, the Federal Bureau of Narcotics (FBN) launched a public relations effort to have federal laws passed banning the use of marijuana; it was driven by a jurisdictional struggle between Harry Anslinger (FBN) and J. Edgar Hoover (FBI). The campaign was a success; it not only achieved the desired legislation, but created a wave of mass hysteria about the "threat" of marijuana.
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* Goode & Ben-Yehuda, *Moral Panics* (1994), p.12.
In the movie *Quadrophenia*, set in Brighton, UK in the late 1960's, a recurring theme was the contemporary moral panic over the clash between Mods and Rockers.
moral panic by Abu Yahya February 15, 2009
blood libel
a false allegation of murder; the term refers specifically to a recurring rumor from 12th century Europe that Jews were kidnapping Christian children and using their blood for ritual purposes. A famous example of the blood libel is recounted in the "Nun Prioress's Tale" from Chaucer's *Canterbury Tales*. In this and other versions of the story, the events are absurd and feature perverse miracles.
Frequently occurrences of the blood libel were accompanied by a wave of mass murder of Jewish residents of the city. In many cases, the zealots would force the authorities to try random Jews for the alleged crime; these trials were, naturally, travesties.
The last case of a blood libel resulting in murder was the Kielce pogrom of 1946. 200 Jewish survivors of the Final Solution were being transported back to Poland when a boy (who had disappeared for a couple of days) told the police he had been kidnapped by Jews. The police went to a hostel where returning Holocaust survivors were staying, and massacred 37 of them.
Sometimes the phrase "blood libel" is used to refer to similar allegations against primarily non-Jewish groups; for example, many nationalities have been accused of kidnapping children to harvest their organs and sell them to rich patients in the developed world.
Frequently occurrences of the blood libel were accompanied by a wave of mass murder of Jewish residents of the city. In many cases, the zealots would force the authorities to try random Jews for the alleged crime; these trials were, naturally, travesties.
The last case of a blood libel resulting in murder was the Kielce pogrom of 1946. 200 Jewish survivors of the Final Solution were being transported back to Poland when a boy (who had disappeared for a couple of days) told the police he had been kidnapped by Jews. The police went to a hostel where returning Holocaust survivors were staying, and massacred 37 of them.
Sometimes the phrase "blood libel" is used to refer to similar allegations against primarily non-Jewish groups; for example, many nationalities have been accused of kidnapping children to harvest their organs and sell them to rich patients in the developed world.
Although the details have changed over the last millenium, the blood libel retains core elements of sadistic fantasy, psychological projection, and crass opportunism.
blood libel by Abu Yahya February 15, 2009
perverse miracle
a{n alleged} miracle that serves no purpose or is actively evil. For example, in the Apocryphal New Testament, in the book *Protevangelion*, XI. Mary's immaculate conception has caused immense turmoil for Joseph and Mary, not merely because Joseph assumes Mary has conceived with another mortal, but also because she does so far too soon. This is therefore resolved by more miracles, that fail to convince anyone (xi.19). In XIII., Joseph has to get a midwife, and finds that time has stopped (so he can find her quickly?). But in the following chapter, the midwife is useless and Mary delivers miraculously too. So there was no point at all to the miracle.
Other examples: a story in the Talmud of a slain holy man's blood, which bubbled miraculously on the spot where he was killed. Nebuchadnezzar is said to arrive there after his conquest of Jerusalem and demand to know why the blood bubbles. When he finds out, he believes he has to appease the spirit of the holy man and so he "sacrifices" 80,000 people on the spot where the blood bubbles. Wouldn't God stop the bubbling just to get Nebuchadnezzar to stop murdering people there?
Other examples: a story in the Talmud of a slain holy man's blood, which bubbled miraculously on the spot where he was killed. Nebuchadnezzar is said to arrive there after his conquest of Jerusalem and demand to know why the blood bubbles. When he finds out, he believes he has to appease the spirit of the holy man and so he "sacrifices" 80,000 people on the spot where the blood bubbles. Wouldn't God stop the bubbling just to get Nebuchadnezzar to stop murdering people there?
If Bush was a perverse miracle sent from God to punish our nation for its wickedness, then would it not have been more godlike to make us less wicked--instead?
perverse miracle by Abu Yahya February 15, 2009