The belief efforts to protect people from calamity will only lead to them being more careless, and bringing on more calamity.
This is a fallacy because it (a) assumes people can adjust personal risk to replicate an incomparable situation, and (b) it confusing risk-taking and risky behavior. "Risk-taking" is a neutral term that includes anything that increases risk in some way, such as operating a machine at a higher speed. This usually is done to get some other benefit. "Risky behavior" is foolish, feckless, or sloppy behavior that has no intrinsic utility to the person engaging in it.
This is a fallacy because it (a) assumes people can adjust personal risk to replicate an incomparable situation, and (b) it confusing risk-taking and risky behavior. "Risk-taking" is a neutral term that includes anything that increases risk in some way, such as operating a machine at a higher speed. This usually is done to get some other benefit. "Risky behavior" is foolish, feckless, or sloppy behavior that has no intrinsic utility to the person engaging in it.
An example of the curmudgeon's fallacy is the erroneous claim that safer cars make for careless drivers.
by Abu Yahya September 01, 2008
The idea that, if you mitigate the consequences of a particular type of accident, then that type of accident will necessarily occur much more frequently, more than negating the initial benefit.
The CF assumes that human nature is perverse and seeks to equalize consequences. Hence, improved automotive technologies such as air bags, ABS, space frames, etc. will be offset (or more than offset) by careless driving, leading to increased highway fatalities.
FALSIFICATION: Empirical evidence shows that, while reducing consequences increases risky behavior, overall safety/health outcomes are better. Insurance companies with a stake in reducing claims verify this.
More generally, the CF confuses all forms of risk-taking, such as faster highway speeds, with fecklessness. Increased speed and convenience (for motorists) has utility; and there is no principle in welfare economics that says risk-taking will increase by an amount sufficient to offset the safety measures.
The CF assumes that human nature is perverse and seeks to equalize consequences. Hence, improved automotive technologies such as air bags, ABS, space frames, etc. will be offset (or more than offset) by careless driving, leading to increased highway fatalities.
FALSIFICATION: Empirical evidence shows that, while reducing consequences increases risky behavior, overall safety/health outcomes are better. Insurance companies with a stake in reducing claims verify this.
More generally, the CF confuses all forms of risk-taking, such as faster highway speeds, with fecklessness. Increased speed and convenience (for motorists) has utility; and there is no principle in welfare economics that says risk-taking will increase by an amount sufficient to offset the safety measures.
The massively overrated book *Freakanomics* (Dubner & Leavitt) includes many examples of the curmudgeon's fallacy.
by Abu Yahya August 22, 2008
(FINANCE) a situation in which an investor stands to gain if a particular investment instrument (stocks, bonds, gold, real estate) goes up in value. One "takes a long position" with respect to a particular item.
There are several ways of taking a long position; an obvious way to go long is to actually own the thing itself. Supposing you are taking a long position on Intel common stock (NASDAQ:INTC), here are some other ways:
* Buy a call option for INTC, especially with a strike price higher than the current spot price.
* Write a put option for INTC, committing yourself to buy more INTC stock if the price goes down over the near term
* Buy a futures contract for INTC at spot (or more).
CAVEAT LECTOR: there are many _potential_ definitions of long position; I have given the broadest one available.
There are several ways of taking a long position; an obvious way to go long is to actually own the thing itself. Supposing you are taking a long position on Intel common stock (NASDAQ:INTC), here are some other ways:
* Buy a call option for INTC, especially with a strike price higher than the current spot price.
* Write a put option for INTC, committing yourself to buy more INTC stock if the price goes down over the near term
* Buy a futures contract for INTC at spot (or more).
CAVEAT LECTOR: there are many _potential_ definitions of long position; I have given the broadest one available.
MICHAEL: I want to flatten my long position on T-bills.
ANNA: I would recommend buying a covered interest swap with another major currency, like yen.
ANNA: I would recommend buying a covered interest swap with another major currency, like yen.
by Abu Yahya April 10, 2010
(FINANCE) a type of financial derivative; a certificate that gives the owner the right to buy (or sell) a fixed amount of a specific thing for a specific price (the strike price).
An option to buy something else is called a call option; an option to sell something else is called a put option. An option has a strike price, which is the price at which you are entitled to buy (or sell) the underlying commodity, or stock, or foreign currency, or whatever.
Options allow the owner to speculate in the possibility that market prices will change in a certain direction, without actually spending the value of the underlying item. For example, suppose WTI crude is $85.75/bbl. In order to make $1000 off of a $0.25 increase in the price, you ordinarily would need to own 4000 bbls of crude, which you can't afford. So, instead, you buy a call option for 4000 bbls with a strike price of $85.75/bbl (i.e., exactly what it is now). This option will cost a tiny amount of money. If the price goes up to $86.00/bbl, you don't own the oil, but your options are now worth $1000 to somebody who wants to buy that oil.
An option with intrinsic value (for example,a call option whose strike price is less than the spot price) is "in the money." An option with no intrinsic value is "out of the money."
An option to buy something else is called a call option; an option to sell something else is called a put option. An option has a strike price, which is the price at which you are entitled to buy (or sell) the underlying commodity, or stock, or foreign currency, or whatever.
Options allow the owner to speculate in the possibility that market prices will change in a certain direction, without actually spending the value of the underlying item. For example, suppose WTI crude is $85.75/bbl. In order to make $1000 off of a $0.25 increase in the price, you ordinarily would need to own 4000 bbls of crude, which you can't afford. So, instead, you buy a call option for 4000 bbls with a strike price of $85.75/bbl (i.e., exactly what it is now). This option will cost a tiny amount of money. If the price goes up to $86.00/bbl, you don't own the oil, but your options are now worth $1000 to somebody who wants to buy that oil.
An option with intrinsic value (for example,a call option whose strike price is less than the spot price) is "in the money." An option with no intrinsic value is "out of the money."
BILL: So, options are just like gambling, am I right?
ANNA: For most people. But if you're already in the business of buying or selling a particular thing, an option can protect you against a bad price movement.
BILL: But options on stocks? I mean, unless a company wants to reward its own executives, or something?
ANNA: Well, you might need options on stocks to hedge risk, if you're a fund manager. That way you can focus on long-run investing.
ANNA: For most people. But if you're already in the business of buying or selling a particular thing, an option can protect you against a bad price movement.
BILL: But options on stocks? I mean, unless a company wants to reward its own executives, or something?
ANNA: Well, you might need options on stocks to hedge risk, if you're a fund manager. That way you can focus on long-run investing.
by Abu Yahya April 05, 2010
(ECONOMICS) the administrative committee of the Federal Reserve System that actually administers monetary policy. There are 12 members of the FOMC.
The 12 members include all seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB).
In addition, representatives of each Federal Reserve Bank are eligible to serve on the FOMC. The FOMC implements sales/purchases of treasury securities (open market operations) in order to create credit at member banks. This is the process by which banks with FRS membership can create money. The difficulty of open market operations lies in ensuring that rates for short term securities remain lower than those for long term securities. Otherwise, monetary tightening cannot succeed in curbing inflation.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2nd FRB) is by far the most important of the 12 district banks. Historically, its president has often gone on to become either chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, or else Secretary of the Treasury (as, for example, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner). Nearly all bank holding companies have subsidiaries in the 2nd District, and the 2nd District is uniquely guaranteed a seat on the FOMC. The other 11 rotate, with 4 taking a turn of the FOMC at any given time.
The 12 members include all seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB).
In addition, representatives of each Federal Reserve Bank are eligible to serve on the FOMC. The FOMC implements sales/purchases of treasury securities (open market operations) in order to create credit at member banks. This is the process by which banks with FRS membership can create money. The difficulty of open market operations lies in ensuring that rates for short term securities remain lower than those for long term securities. Otherwise, monetary tightening cannot succeed in curbing inflation.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2nd FRB) is by far the most important of the 12 district banks. Historically, its president has often gone on to become either chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, or else Secretary of the Treasury (as, for example, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner). Nearly all bank holding companies have subsidiaries in the 2nd District, and the 2nd District is uniquely guaranteed a seat on the FOMC. The other 11 rotate, with 4 taking a turn of the FOMC at any given time.
The Federal Open Market Committee conducts transactions in treasury securities at the Open Market Window.
by Abu Yahya May 05, 2010
a number that is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. It reflects the overall caliber of a country's prior economic management.
The term was coined by Arthur Okun and was inspired by the Phillips Curve.
The term was coined by Arthur Okun and was inspired by the Phillips Curve.
During the 1980's and '90's, Austria had the lowest misery index in the world. Unemployment rates AND inflation rates were almost nil.
by Abu Yahya February 15, 2009
In economics, a policy in which the authorities insist on some permanent, precise guarantee of the value of the local currency to some other thing: a unit measure of gold, the US dollar, the euro, or the pound. Historically, the US dollar had a hard peg to gold from 1946 to 1971, while other currencies in the developed world had a hard peg to the US dollar. Since 1971, most of the world's money is in floating currency (whose relative value is set by the free market).
Nonetheless, advocates of hard pegs frequently downplay the ... difficulties of establishing greater nominal flexibility in fiscal spending and wages...
by abu yahya June 24, 2008