Definitions by abu yahya
confidence interval
(STATISTICS) a range of values for which you are x percent confident contains the correct answer. Answers to a statistical question which are ranged from the lowest likely value to the highest; answers outside of this range are highly unlikely.
Presupposes that you are estimating a value based on sample data, and the sample data has a genuinely random variance.
Usually the confidence interval is for a 95% confidence, meaning there is only a 5% probability that the true value is OUTSIDE the interval.
Presupposes that you are estimating a value based on sample data, and the sample data has a genuinely random variance.
Usually the confidence interval is for a 95% confidence, meaning there is only a 5% probability that the true value is OUTSIDE the interval.
ANNA: I've been driving your car for about a month.
JAMES: And what you think is the MPG?
ANNA: It's probably about 25 MPG, with a 95% confidence interval of 19.5 to 32 MPG.
JAMES: Holy cow! Any Prussians in your family tree?
JAMES: And what you think is the MPG?
ANNA: It's probably about 25 MPG, with a 95% confidence interval of 19.5 to 32 MPG.
JAMES: Holy cow! Any Prussians in your family tree?
confidence interval by Abu Yahya April 23, 2010
liquidity trap
(ECONOMICS) situation in which demand confidence in banks or borrowers is so low that monetary policy (i.e., lowering interest rates) has no positive impact on the economy. A characteristic of an economic depression.
When the economy contracts, or is in a recession, it is occasionally sufficient for the authorities to lower the discount rate or the federal funds rate. This lowers the cost of borrowing money, so more people do so, more stuff is bought, and the economy recovers. But in a depression, people will hoard cash (if they have any); if the interest rate is lowered, they still won't borrow, and the banks won't lend (because they want to restore their balance sheets).
When this happens, only fiscal policy has any chance of restoring economic growth.
When the economy contracts, or is in a recession, it is occasionally sufficient for the authorities to lower the discount rate or the federal funds rate. This lowers the cost of borrowing money, so more people do so, more stuff is bought, and the economy recovers. But in a depression, people will hoard cash (if they have any); if the interest rate is lowered, they still won't borrow, and the banks won't lend (because they want to restore their balance sheets).
When this happens, only fiscal policy has any chance of restoring economic growth.
In the fall of 2008, the failure of so many major banks caused a global liquidity trap. For two quarters, the world economy suffered a very severe contraction, and millions of people lost their jobs.
liquidity trap by Abu Yahya April 18, 2010
naked option
(FINANCE) a call option that is written by a party who possesses none of the underlying stock; a commitment to sell a fixed amount of something at a fixed price, of something one does not happen to have.
Writing an option means selling a certificate that guarantees the holder can buy a traded item for a guaranteed price (strike price). The person who writes the option is betting that the price of the underlying stock will go down (shorting a stock, AKA a short position). If the person writing the option is correct, then she makes money off the sale of the option, but does not have to worry about honoring the option, since it is out of the money and has no intrinsic value.
If the person writing the option is wrong, and the price of the underlying stock goes up, then she must buy the item at the higher spot price specifically to sell it at the low strike price ("short cover"). In rare cases, a person who makes this sort of error will actually drive the spot price much higher than it would have gone ordinarily.
Writing an option means selling a certificate that guarantees the holder can buy a traded item for a guaranteed price (strike price). The person who writes the option is betting that the price of the underlying stock will go down (shorting a stock, AKA a short position). If the person writing the option is correct, then she makes money off the sale of the option, but does not have to worry about honoring the option, since it is out of the money and has no intrinsic value.
If the person writing the option is wrong, and the price of the underlying stock goes up, then she must buy the item at the higher spot price specifically to sell it at the low strike price ("short cover"). In rare cases, a person who makes this sort of error will actually drive the spot price much higher than it would have gone ordinarily.
Naked option writing is quite risky because you can make only a limited amount of money. yet the risks are high.
naked option by Abu Yahya April 15, 2010
out of the money
(FINANCE) used to refer to an option that has no intrinsic value, given the prevailing spot price. The two obvious examples are the call option and the put option.
*If the strike price of a call option is greater than the current price (or "spot price") of the underlying stock, then there is no point in exercising the option.
*If the strike price of a put option is less than the spot price, then there is no point in exercising the option/
Please note that "having no intrinsic value" IS NOT THE SAME THING as "worthless." An option that is out of the money is not worthless, unless it is about to expire. Assuming there is a lot of time left on the option before it expires, there remains the possibility the spot price of the underlying item could move in a favorable direction, and make the option "in the money."
*If the strike price of a call option is greater than the current price (or "spot price") of the underlying stock, then there is no point in exercising the option.
*If the strike price of a put option is less than the spot price, then there is no point in exercising the option/
Please note that "having no intrinsic value" IS NOT THE SAME THING as "worthless." An option that is out of the money is not worthless, unless it is about to expire. Assuming there is a lot of time left on the option before it expires, there remains the possibility the spot price of the underlying item could move in a favorable direction, and make the option "in the money."
Buying a call option that is out of the money is a long position; buying a put option that is out of the money is a short position.
out of the money by Abu Yahya April 15, 2010
in the money
(FINANCE) when a financial derivative has intrinsic value to the person who holds it. There are two examples:
* when the strike price of a call option is less than the spot price of the underlying stock, it is worthwhile to exercise it;
* when the strike price of a put option is more than the spot price of the underlying stock, it is worthwhile to exercise it.
Please remember that an option being "in the money" does not mean it was a good investment. You might have bought the option when the difference between the strike price and the spot price was MORE than it is now. If it's expiring, you might as well exercise it because to not do so is just throwing money away. But it still could have been a loss for the investor.
* when the strike price of a call option is less than the spot price of the underlying stock, it is worthwhile to exercise it;
* when the strike price of a put option is more than the spot price of the underlying stock, it is worthwhile to exercise it.
Please remember that an option being "in the money" does not mean it was a good investment. You might have bought the option when the difference between the strike price and the spot price was MORE than it is now. If it's expiring, you might as well exercise it because to not do so is just throwing money away. But it still could have been a loss for the investor.
PHIL: Sweet! My call options are back in the money. Now I'd better exercise them.
MIGUEL: You must be rolling in the cash, Holmes!
PHIL: Not even close. The forex rate for the UK pound nosedived and I got hosed pretty bad. It's not where it was when I bought these rat droppings, but I need to get out before they expire.
MIGUEL: You know, when you first told me about options they sounded like a sweet deal, but...
PHIL: Yeah... the guy who wrote the option always seems to know what's going down better than us dilettantes.
MIGUEL: You must be rolling in the cash, Holmes!
PHIL: Not even close. The forex rate for the UK pound nosedived and I got hosed pretty bad. It's not where it was when I bought these rat droppings, but I need to get out before they expire.
MIGUEL: You know, when you first told me about options they sounded like a sweet deal, but...
PHIL: Yeah... the guy who wrote the option always seems to know what's going down better than us dilettantes.
in the money by Abu Yahya April 15, 2010
put option
(FINANCE) a tradable financial instrument that consists of a commitment to buy a fixed amount of X at a fixed price (known as a "strike price"). Put options are the opposite of a call option, in which ones to sell a fixed amount of X at strike.
Put options are useful to traders interested in covering risk. They guarantee a minimum price at which one can expect to sell one's holdings of X.
When the strike price of a put is less than the spot price, then it is "out of the money" and has no intrinsic value.
Put options are useful to traders interested in covering risk. They guarantee a minimum price at which one can expect to sell one's holdings of X.
When the strike price of a put is less than the spot price, then it is "out of the money" and has no intrinsic value.
Buying put options is a way of shorting a stock; but it can also be used as a hedge against unpleasant surprises.
put option by Abu Yahya April 15, 2010
covering risk
(FINANCE) using financial derivatives to guarantee against losses. Typically used by non-traders, such as companies engaged in international commerce, to protect themselves against foreign exchange risk (i.e., the possibility that a customer's currency will decline in value).
BILL: You know, I think that financial derivatives are just a huge sinkhole. The people who trade them are just a bunch of wankers who move bits of paper around but add nothing of value.
ANNA: Well, they do provide some important benefits.
BILL: Name one.
ANNA: Covering risk, for one. If you're an airline, you need those aviation fuel options.
ANNA: Well, they do provide some important benefits.
BILL: Name one.
ANNA: Covering risk, for one. If you're an airline, you need those aviation fuel options.
covering risk by Abu Yahya April 15, 2010