*noun*, term used in economics to refer to the New Classical economics. The fresh water school was lead by Robert E. Lucas, Thomas J. Sargent, and Robert Barro; its position was that fiscal policy and monetary policy are doomed to be ineffective, since they rely on "fooling the public."
Instead, they argued that even tax cuts had no stimulus effect (in contrast to "supply side economics"), and of course they were resolutely opposed to government spending. Instead, the fresh water school maintained that a recession was caused by markets adjusting to a technology shock to create a structurally different economic system. The best thing to do was to allow the markets to restructure industry on their own.
The fresh water school was known for their support of the "rational expectations hypothesis" (REH) and "real business cycle" (RBC) theory.
Instead, they argued that even tax cuts had no stimulus effect (in contrast to "supply side economics"), and of course they were resolutely opposed to government spending. Instead, the fresh water school maintained that a recession was caused by markets adjusting to a technology shock to create a structurally different economic system. The best thing to do was to allow the markets to restructure industry on their own.
The fresh water school was known for their support of the "rational expectations hypothesis" (REH) and "real business cycle" (RBC) theory.
But lately, a ...school of skeptics who think the Government usually just gums things up is gaining attention and influence. The skeptics are known as the "fresh water school," less for the purity of their thought than for their origins at universities along the shores of the Great Lakes.
"'Fresh Water' Economists Gain," *New York Times*, 23 July 1988
"'Fresh Water' Economists Gain," *New York Times*, 23 July 1988
by Abu Yahya March 05, 2009
The largest Hispanophonic countries, in order of population, are
Mexico (111,211,789)
Colombia (43,677,372)
Argentina (40,913,584)
Spain (40,525,002)
USA (35,000,000?)
Peru (29,546,963)
Venezuela (26,814,843)
Chile (16,601,707)
Ecuador (14,573,101)
Guatemala (13,276,517)
Cuba (11,451,652)
Bolivia (9,775,246)
The Dominican Republic (9,650,054)
Honduras (7,833,696)
El Salvador (7,185,218)
Paraguay (6,995,655)
Nicaragua (5,891,199)
Costa Rica (4,253,877)
Mexico (111,211,789)
Colombia (43,677,372)
Argentina (40,913,584)
Spain (40,525,002)
USA (35,000,000?)
Peru (29,546,963)
Venezuela (26,814,843)
Chile (16,601,707)
Ecuador (14,573,101)
Guatemala (13,276,517)
Cuba (11,451,652)
Bolivia (9,775,246)
The Dominican Republic (9,650,054)
Honduras (7,833,696)
El Salvador (7,185,218)
Paraguay (6,995,655)
Nicaragua (5,891,199)
Costa Rica (4,253,877)
by Abu Yahya May 17, 2010
*noun*; global economic collapse; in the USA, this began in 1929 and persisted to 1939; most other industrialized countries emerged from the Depression earlier.
During the Great Depression, unemployment reached over 25% in the USA, and those who had jobs suffered severe wage cuts. The index of industrial output fell over 53% from its high in July '29, while trade and capital markets plummeted to mere fractions of their former levels.
*What Happened*
_____________________________________
Many people imagine that the Stock Market Crash (Oct '29) and the Great Depression are the same thing. However, it took another three years for employment, bank failures, and declining industrial output to run its course.
In 1929 the USA had 25,000 banks. By 1933, 10,000 had either failed or been merged with another to avoid failure. At this time there was no FDIC, so depositors mostly lost their money.
Another phenomenon was plunging prices: the consumer price index fell 25% during the first four years. For businesses, this was a disaster, and forced them to lay off millions.
The Great Depression made farms in much of the Southwest unviable; ruined farmers fled to California or Washington, and their abandoned farms succumbed to the Dust Bowl. This was the single largest ecological disaster in recorded history.
*How It Happened*
_____________________________________
There are basically three main explanations for the Great Depression.
1. During the 1920's, there was a huge and growing disparity between rich and poor. The incomes of the great majority rose much more slowly than productivity, but this was masked by increased borrowing. People were able to borrow because the market value of their assets was larger than what they owed; but when a rash of defaults occurred, then the market value of assets plummeted, and people owed more than their assets were worth. Businesses had to lay off workers, which further reduced aggregate demand.
2. The Great Depression began as another minor downturn, but was made much worse by the failure of the Federal Reserve to respond adequately (see Milton Friedman & Anna Schwartz). While the Fed reduced interest rates, prices fell even faster, so real interest rates soared. This made a quick recovery impossible.
3. The financial markets (combined with Fed supervision) distributed capital badly; for example, speculative ventures in growing wheat in the Great American Desert, real estate in Florida, and so on. When this arrangement of productive resources failed, it constituted an extremely large technology shock. Subsequent policy intervention tended to withhold capital and labor from the most productive enterprises, making the depression deeper.
(Explanation 3 is the New Classical economics explanation; see Harold Cole & Lee Ohanian.)
*Roosevelt Administration*
_____________________________________
Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected by a landslide in 1932, and inaugurated 4 March 1933. The White House immediately used emergency powers to close, restructure, and re-open the nation's banks. During the first 100 days of the FDR administration, Congress passed the New Deal which greatly eased the impact of the Depression on the hardest hit.
The New Deal did not significantly hasten the end of the Great Depression, because it was too small to provide a meaningful fiscal stimulus. However, it did introduce many important programs to help those affected by poverty. The Depression had ended in most of the world by 1937; the US was mostly recovered by 1939, when World War 2 broke out.
During the Great Depression, unemployment reached over 25% in the USA, and those who had jobs suffered severe wage cuts. The index of industrial output fell over 53% from its high in July '29, while trade and capital markets plummeted to mere fractions of their former levels.
*What Happened*
_____________________________________
Many people imagine that the Stock Market Crash (Oct '29) and the Great Depression are the same thing. However, it took another three years for employment, bank failures, and declining industrial output to run its course.
In 1929 the USA had 25,000 banks. By 1933, 10,000 had either failed or been merged with another to avoid failure. At this time there was no FDIC, so depositors mostly lost their money.
Another phenomenon was plunging prices: the consumer price index fell 25% during the first four years. For businesses, this was a disaster, and forced them to lay off millions.
The Great Depression made farms in much of the Southwest unviable; ruined farmers fled to California or Washington, and their abandoned farms succumbed to the Dust Bowl. This was the single largest ecological disaster in recorded history.
*How It Happened*
_____________________________________
There are basically three main explanations for the Great Depression.
1. During the 1920's, there was a huge and growing disparity between rich and poor. The incomes of the great majority rose much more slowly than productivity, but this was masked by increased borrowing. People were able to borrow because the market value of their assets was larger than what they owed; but when a rash of defaults occurred, then the market value of assets plummeted, and people owed more than their assets were worth. Businesses had to lay off workers, which further reduced aggregate demand.
2. The Great Depression began as another minor downturn, but was made much worse by the failure of the Federal Reserve to respond adequately (see Milton Friedman & Anna Schwartz). While the Fed reduced interest rates, prices fell even faster, so real interest rates soared. This made a quick recovery impossible.
3. The financial markets (combined with Fed supervision) distributed capital badly; for example, speculative ventures in growing wheat in the Great American Desert, real estate in Florida, and so on. When this arrangement of productive resources failed, it constituted an extremely large technology shock. Subsequent policy intervention tended to withhold capital and labor from the most productive enterprises, making the depression deeper.
(Explanation 3 is the New Classical economics explanation; see Harold Cole & Lee Ohanian.)
*Roosevelt Administration*
_____________________________________
Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected by a landslide in 1932, and inaugurated 4 March 1933. The White House immediately used emergency powers to close, restructure, and re-open the nation's banks. During the first 100 days of the FDR administration, Congress passed the New Deal which greatly eased the impact of the Depression on the hardest hit.
The New Deal did not significantly hasten the end of the Great Depression, because it was too small to provide a meaningful fiscal stimulus. However, it did introduce many important programs to help those affected by poverty. The Depression had ended in most of the world by 1937; the US was mostly recovered by 1939, when World War 2 broke out.
The NBER business cycle chronology dates the start of the Great Depression in August 1929. For this reason many have said that the Depression started on Main Street and not Wall Street. Be that as it may, the stock market plummeted in October of 1929. The bursting of the speculative bubble had been achieved and the economy was now headed in an ominous direction.
Randall Parker, "An Overview of the Great Depression" (2002)
Randall Parker, "An Overview of the Great Depression" (2002)
by Abu Yahya March 06, 2009
(FINANCE) when a corporation "goes public"; the first sale of stock by a corporation. All sales of stock or bonds on the stock market require the services of an underwriter, or investment bank. Outside of the USA and China, it is common for regular banks to offer underwriting for corporations.
Incorporation is a legal status that allows (but by no means requires) a firm to issue stock. Moreover, once a corporation lists stock, it does not necessarily do so on a major exchange. Some corporations areclosely held, which means they have a small number of shareholders who are mostly affiliated with management; other corporations are "private," which means they have no stock issues at all, and control/shares of profits are determined contractually.
Some corporations have issues of stock, and that stock is traded, but it is not listed. Instead, it is traded on the "pink pages." Such companies are usually in a bad way, but not necessarily.
An IPO is the first issue of stock by a corporation THAT DOESN'T ALREADY have a listed stock. If a company is "taken private" (i.e., bought out by a PE fund and de-listed) then it can have another IPO (or "sponsored IPO"). Most likely, however, if a listed company will need to raise money on the stock market, it will have a "follow-on offering."
Incorporation is a legal status that allows (but by no means requires) a firm to issue stock. Moreover, once a corporation lists stock, it does not necessarily do so on a major exchange. Some corporations areclosely held, which means they have a small number of shareholders who are mostly affiliated with management; other corporations are "private," which means they have no stock issues at all, and control/shares of profits are determined contractually.
Some corporations have issues of stock, and that stock is traded, but it is not listed. Instead, it is traded on the "pink pages." Such companies are usually in a bad way, but not necessarily.
An IPO is the first issue of stock by a corporation THAT DOESN'T ALREADY have a listed stock. If a company is "taken private" (i.e., bought out by a PE fund and de-listed) then it can have another IPO (or "sponsored IPO"). Most likely, however, if a listed company will need to raise money on the stock market, it will have a "follow-on offering."
A fantasy of many entrepreneurs is "going public" with a big initial public offering, and retiring to a beachfront mansion.
by Abu Yahya September 02, 2010
the gap between revenues and expenditures for a government (over a given period of time); often referred to as an internal deficit or public deficit.
The public deficit accumulates over each time period (usually a year) into what is known as the public debt.
According to Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian economic theory, fiscal deficits are usually the most effective tool for stimulating economic activity; the actual choice of how the money is spent is less important.
The public deficit accumulates over each time period (usually a year) into what is known as the public debt.
According to Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian economic theory, fiscal deficits are usually the most effective tool for stimulating economic activity; the actual choice of how the money is spent is less important.
In the USA, most states are not allowed to run fiscal deficits. In other federal republics, such as India and Argentina, they are allowed and frequently account for much of those countries' internal deficits.
by Abu Yahya February 15, 2009
(FINANCE) a situation in which an investor owns financial instruments (shares, bonds, financial derivatives, etc.) that will make the most money IF some other thing declines in value.
Therefore, one always has to take a short position on something in particular. A short position on gold means the investor expects gold to decline in value in the near future, and has bought various things to make money if it does.
Some ways to take a short position on X include:
(1) buying a put option on X
(2) writing a call option on X
(3) borrowing X and selling it (shorting a stock)
#3 is the classical way to take a short position. It was dangerous because a skillful trader could squeeze the shorts using a corner.
Therefore, one always has to take a short position on something in particular. A short position on gold means the investor expects gold to decline in value in the near future, and has bought various things to make money if it does.
Some ways to take a short position on X include:
(1) buying a put option on X
(2) writing a call option on X
(3) borrowing X and selling it (shorting a stock)
#3 is the classical way to take a short position. It was dangerous because a skillful trader could squeeze the shorts using a corner.
BILL: I guess you took a bath when the stock market tanked, huh?
ANA: Nope. I took a short position on all of the nine largest banks. Did rather well, thank you very much.
BIL: Sweet!
ANA: Nope. I took a short position on all of the nine largest banks. Did rather well, thank you very much.
BIL: Sweet!
by Abu Yahya April 05, 2010
A problem faced by a person with specialized expertise in any area, in which the implications of the opinion are unpopular and likely to be rejected by those who need that expertise. For example, economists may be likely to know that, in some cases, a "market solution" is inherently impossible, but proposing an alternative is an exercise not merely in futility, but career suicide among those who employ economists. It arises because the expert knows more about the field than her employers.
The statistician was asked by his boss to make a case for risk homeostasis, but knowing better, he faced an expert's dilemma: telling the truth would get him tarred as a 'socialist.'
by abu yahya June 23, 2008