Abu Yahya's definitions
the amount of goods and services that a country imports, minus the goods and services that it exports *in a calendar year*. In 1999 Japan exported much more than it imported, so it had a trade surplus. The same year, the United States imported more than it exported, and therefore had a large trade deficit.
While Japan had a trade surplus and the USA had a trade deficit, both had something called a trade balance, which was negative for the USA and positive for Japan.
While Japan had a trade surplus and the USA had a trade deficit, both had something called a trade balance, which was negative for the USA and positive for Japan.
During economic downturns, political leaders become very concerned if their country is running a trade deficit, because it means that jobs are being lost to business overseas.
by Abu Yahya February 14, 2009
Get the trade deficit mug.(FINANCE) a call option that is written by a party who possesses none of the underlying stock; a commitment to sell a fixed amount of something at a fixed price, of something one does not happen to have.
Writing an option means selling a certificate that guarantees the holder can buy a traded item for a guaranteed price (strike price). The person who writes the option is betting that the price of the underlying stock will go down (shorting a stock, AKA a short position). If the person writing the option is correct, then she makes money off the sale of the option, but does not have to worry about honoring the option, since it is out of the money and has no intrinsic value.
If the person writing the option is wrong, and the price of the underlying stock goes up, then she must buy the item at the higher spot price specifically to sell it at the low strike price ("short cover"). In rare cases, a person who makes this sort of error will actually drive the spot price much higher than it would have gone ordinarily.
Writing an option means selling a certificate that guarantees the holder can buy a traded item for a guaranteed price (strike price). The person who writes the option is betting that the price of the underlying stock will go down (shorting a stock, AKA a short position). If the person writing the option is correct, then she makes money off the sale of the option, but does not have to worry about honoring the option, since it is out of the money and has no intrinsic value.
If the person writing the option is wrong, and the price of the underlying stock goes up, then she must buy the item at the higher spot price specifically to sell it at the low strike price ("short cover"). In rare cases, a person who makes this sort of error will actually drive the spot price much higher than it would have gone ordinarily.
Naked option writing is quite risky because you can make only a limited amount of money. yet the risks are high.
by Abu Yahya April 15, 2010
Get the naked option mug.A problem faced by a person with specialized expertise in any area, in which the implications of the opinion are unpopular and likely to be rejected by those who need that expertise. For example, economists may be likely to know that, in some cases, a "market solution" is inherently impossible, but proposing an alternative is an exercise not merely in futility, but career suicide among those who employ economists. It arises because the expert knows more about the field than her employers.
The statistician was asked by his boss to make a case for risk homeostasis, but knowing better, he faced an expert's dilemma: telling the truth would get him tarred as a 'socialist.'
by abu yahya June 23, 2008
Get the expert's dilemma mug.*noun*; a method of representing the economy as the sum of many identical individuals and firms, each represented by a system of mathematical equations. The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) takes its name from the premise that economic actors, i.e., everyone, do not make consistent errors about the present or future behavior of markets.
REH was devised mainly as a rebuke to Keynesian economics, and in particular, the strategy of fiscal policy or monetary policy.
According to the REH, fiscal policy does not alter aggregate demand because the "average" person recognizes that her lifetime income is not increasing--so she needs to save rather than spend the stimulus money, in anticipation of higher taxes in the future.
At the same time, monetary policy does not work because it relies on lowering interest rates to make more money available; more money means inflation, but people have to be deceived into thinking prices for their product are going up, so they will expand production. According to REH, people or firms will figure this out, and see increased demand as mere inflation. Instead of increasing output and employment, they'll want to raise prices so they can meet their future bills.
According to REH, both monetary and fiscal policy rely on illusions to work; and since people (on average) will make rational estimates o the future, they will defeat these illusions.
REH was devised mainly as a rebuke to Keynesian economics, and in particular, the strategy of fiscal policy or monetary policy.
According to the REH, fiscal policy does not alter aggregate demand because the "average" person recognizes that her lifetime income is not increasing--so she needs to save rather than spend the stimulus money, in anticipation of higher taxes in the future.
At the same time, monetary policy does not work because it relies on lowering interest rates to make more money available; more money means inflation, but people have to be deceived into thinking prices for their product are going up, so they will expand production. According to REH, people or firms will figure this out, and see increased demand as mere inflation. Instead of increasing output and employment, they'll want to raise prices so they can meet their future bills.
According to REH, both monetary and fiscal policy rely on illusions to work; and since people (on average) will make rational estimates o the future, they will defeat these illusions.
The rational expectations hypothesis states that we can break the realization of a return into an expected return that depends on the current information set and an unexpected component that depends only on new information.
by Abu Yahya March 3, 2009
Get the rational expectations hypothesis mug.(FINANCE) hilarious term used for over a century in the trading of stocks, commodities, etc. A way in which someone who controls much of the outstanding shares of stock can make a lot of money while ruining those who are betting against the stock.
A "short" is traditionally someone with expertise in shorting a stock, i.e., managing to borrow shares and sell them in anticipation of a decline in value. Obviously, if there are many people shorting a particular stock at any given time, and if they are wrong about the future, then a steep rise in value if the share price will not only cause them to lose money, it will force panic purchases of stock as the traders attempt to cover their shorts. If the instigator of the squeeze is successful, he will have a corner, and drive the price of the stock up to absurd levels.
An unsuccessful squeeze of shorts in a copper trust triggered the Crisis of 1907. That, in turn, triggered the Aldrich–Vreeland Act (May 1908).
A "short" is traditionally someone with expertise in shorting a stock, i.e., managing to borrow shares and sell them in anticipation of a decline in value. Obviously, if there are many people shorting a particular stock at any given time, and if they are wrong about the future, then a steep rise in value if the share price will not only cause them to lose money, it will force panic purchases of stock as the traders attempt to cover their shorts. If the instigator of the squeeze is successful, he will have a corner, and drive the price of the stock up to absurd levels.
An unsuccessful squeeze of shorts in a copper trust triggered the Crisis of 1907. That, in turn, triggered the Aldrich–Vreeland Act (May 1908).
The brokers, after awhile, commenced to borrow large amounts of the stock. This convinced the insiders that there was a big short interest somewhere, and they got together in order to squeeze the shorts... They never awakened to the fact that the {president of the company} had sold out on them... {and were totally ruined}
Henry Clews, Victor Niederhoffer, *Fifty Years in Wall Street*, p.149
Henry Clews, Victor Niederhoffer, *Fifty Years in Wall Street*, p.149
by Abu Yahya April 5, 2010
Get the squeeze the shorts mug.(ECONOMICS) international bank created after World War 2 to coordinate currency stabilization. Main policy tool consists of lending money to central bank of countries facing a liquidity crisis.
In some cases, as when a member government is insolvent, the IMF will impose a structural adjustment program (SAP) requiring the government to jettison programs it has to serve the poor. For this reason, the IMF is often harshly criticized.
In some cases, as when a member government is insolvent, the IMF will impose a structural adjustment program (SAP) requiring the government to jettison programs it has to serve the poor. For this reason, the IMF is often harshly criticized.
It is often said that the IMF makes economic crises worse by imposing the same austerity program everywhere, thereby further reducing a member state's ability to pay its sovereign debt.
by Abu Yahya May 5, 2010
Get the IMF mug.Largest oil company in the world (as of 2010; in 2009, it was #2). Sales in 2009 were $285 billion. Worldwide proved reserves of 14.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Most of the oil giant's crude is produced in Nigeria, Oman, the UK, and the USA. Shell is also investing heavily in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project, which converts oil sands in Alberta to synthetic crude oil. The company operates 44,000 gas stations (the world's largest retail fuel network) in more than 80 countries.
Shell is implicated in exploitation and support for dictatorships in Nigeria, Angola, and elsewhere. It operates a huge, stunningly toxic facility in the Niger River Delta, but provides almost no compensation to the Ogoni people. In 1994, Ogoni activist Ken Saro-Wiwa was arrested for allegedly inciting violence against Shell staff and executed, along with 8 other Ogoni.
Shell is implicated in exploitation and support for dictatorships in Nigeria, Angola, and elsewhere. It operates a huge, stunningly toxic facility in the Niger River Delta, but provides almost no compensation to the Ogoni people. In 1994, Ogoni activist Ken Saro-Wiwa was arrested for allegedly inciting violence against Shell staff and executed, along with 8 other Ogoni.
Royal Dutch Shell is, like BP, p.l.c. and Exxon Mobil, very large, very old, and very evil. It is based in the Hague--ironically enough, near the International Court of Justice.
by Abu Yahya July 18, 2010
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