*noun*; a method of representing the economy as the sum of many identical individuals and firms, each represented by a system of mathematical equations. The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) takes its name from the premise that economic actors, i.e., everyone, do not make consistent errors about the present or future behavior of markets.
REH was devised mainly as a rebuke to Keynesian economics, and in particular, the strategy of fiscal policy or monetary policy.
According to the REH, fiscal policy does not alter aggregate demand because the "average" person recognizes that her lifetime income is not increasing--so she needs to save rather than spend the stimulus money, in anticipation of higher taxes in the future.
At the same time, monetary policy does not work because it relies on lowering interest rates to make more money available; more money means inflation, but people have to be deceived into thinking prices for their product are going up, so they will expand production. According to REH, people or firms will figure this out, and see increased demand as mere inflation. Instead of increasing output and employment, they'll want to raise prices so they can meet their future bills.
According to REH, both monetary and fiscal policy rely on illusions to work; and since people (on average) will make rational estimates o the future, they will defeat these illusions.
REH was devised mainly as a rebuke to Keynesian economics, and in particular, the strategy of fiscal policy or monetary policy.
According to the REH, fiscal policy does not alter aggregate demand because the "average" person recognizes that her lifetime income is not increasing--so she needs to save rather than spend the stimulus money, in anticipation of higher taxes in the future.
At the same time, monetary policy does not work because it relies on lowering interest rates to make more money available; more money means inflation, but people have to be deceived into thinking prices for their product are going up, so they will expand production. According to REH, people or firms will figure this out, and see increased demand as mere inflation. Instead of increasing output and employment, they'll want to raise prices so they can meet their future bills.
According to REH, both monetary and fiscal policy rely on illusions to work; and since people (on average) will make rational estimates o the future, they will defeat these illusions.
The rational expectations hypothesis states that we can break the realization of a return into an expected return that depends on the current information set and an unexpected component that depends only on new information.
by Abu Yahya March 03, 2009
Get the rational expectations hypothesis mug.(FINANCE) hilarious term used for over a century in the trading of stocks, commodities, etc. A way in which someone who controls much of the outstanding shares of stock can make a lot of money while ruining those who are betting against the stock.
A "short" is traditionally someone with expertise in shorting a stock, i.e., managing to borrow shares and sell them in anticipation of a decline in value. Obviously, if there are many people shorting a particular stock at any given time, and if they are wrong about the future, then a steep rise in value if the share price will not only cause them to lose money, it will force panic purchases of stock as the traders attempt to cover their shorts. If the instigator of the squeeze is successful, he will have a corner, and drive the price of the stock up to absurd levels.
An unsuccessful squeeze of shorts in a copper trust triggered the Crisis of 1907. That, in turn, triggered the Aldrich–Vreeland Act (May 1908).
A "short" is traditionally someone with expertise in shorting a stock, i.e., managing to borrow shares and sell them in anticipation of a decline in value. Obviously, if there are many people shorting a particular stock at any given time, and if they are wrong about the future, then a steep rise in value if the share price will not only cause them to lose money, it will force panic purchases of stock as the traders attempt to cover their shorts. If the instigator of the squeeze is successful, he will have a corner, and drive the price of the stock up to absurd levels.
An unsuccessful squeeze of shorts in a copper trust triggered the Crisis of 1907. That, in turn, triggered the Aldrich–Vreeland Act (May 1908).
The brokers, after awhile, commenced to borrow large amounts of the stock. This convinced the insiders that there was a big short interest somewhere, and they got together in order to squeeze the shorts... They never awakened to the fact that the {president of the company} had sold out on them... {and were totally ruined}
Henry Clews, Victor Niederhoffer, *Fifty Years in Wall Street*, p.149
Henry Clews, Victor Niederhoffer, *Fifty Years in Wall Street*, p.149
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Get the squeeze the shorts mug.exceptionally prone to seeing the scurrilous, sexy, or kinky aspect of everything; obsessed with sex; prone to seeing sexual overtones to nonsexual behavior.
A dirty minded person may be hypocritical and unctuous, but read filthy motives into the acts of other people. For example, in the movie "American Beauty," the military officer wrongly assumes that his son's interactions with his neighbor are homosexual, rather than commercial--projecting his own repressed sexuality onto others (with deadly results).
A dirty minded person may be hypocritical and unctuous, but read filthy motives into the acts of other people. For example, in the movie "American Beauty," the military officer wrongly assumes that his son's interactions with his neighbor are homosexual, rather than commercial--projecting his own repressed sexuality onto others (with deadly results).
The dirty minded obscene person does not shamelessly exult in his bawdy language, nor does he use it without self-consciousness... The dirty minded person has only partially internalized the taboos that he violates...
Joel Feinberg, _Offense to Others_, p.267
Joel Feinberg, _Offense to Others_, p.267
by Abu Yahya February 22, 2010
Get the dirty minded mug.(ECONOMICS) economies in which consumption by the very rich is what drives most growth: Bulgari watches, Maybach limousines, Gulfstream V business jets, vacations in the Maldives, Dolce & Gabbana suits, private security services, money laundering, and income tax evasion.
Initially coined by analysts at Citigroup in 2005 to describe the growth of the Usonian economy during that period despite horrible economic fundamentals. Later used by Naomi Klein in her essential work, *The Shock Doctrine*.
Initially coined by analysts at Citigroup in 2005 to describe the growth of the Usonian economy during that period despite horrible economic fundamentals. Later used by Naomi Klein in her essential work, *The Shock Doctrine*.
The US., UK, and Canada are the key Plutonomies - economies powered by the wealthy. Continental Europe (excluding Italy) and Japan are in the egalitarian bloc.
- Equity risk premium embedded in "global imbalances" are unwarranted.
In plutonomies the rich absorb a disproportionate chunk of the economy and have a massive impact on reported aggregate numbers like savings rates, current account deficits, consumption levels, etc.
{Citigroup Oct 16, 2005 Plutonomy Report Part 1}
- Equity risk premium embedded in "global imbalances" are unwarranted.
In plutonomies the rich absorb a disproportionate chunk of the economy and have a massive impact on reported aggregate numbers like savings rates, current account deficits, consumption levels, etc.
{Citigroup Oct 16, 2005 Plutonomy Report Part 1}
by Abu Yahya July 10, 2010
Get the plutonomy mug.(1) The strategy by the world's economic elites of imposing an extremely neoliberal economic regime on communities they control, using some form of shock: a natural disaster, a coup d'etat, a war, a financial crisis, etc. Once the community has been crippled by this first shock, the economic "reforms" are imposed suddenly, creating a secondary blow. Then, as the community begins to recover and fight back, the authorities use torture and police brutality to (literally) shock the community a third time.
(2) title of a book by Naomi Klein describing def. 1
(Please see disaster capitalism.)
(2) title of a book by Naomi Klein describing def. 1
(Please see disaster capitalism.)
Ms. Klein's 2007 book described the rise of disaster capitalism in mostly poor countries: Chile (after 1973), Argentina (after 1989), Poland (after 1993), and Sri Lanka (after 2004). But in 2009, the super rich were able to inflict the shock doctrine on the richest countries of the world, including Germany, France, and Italy.
The 2008 financial crisis was entirely a product of the richest 1% of the human race; but soon after, national governments scrambled to punish the remaining 99% for the crisis instead, by slashing public services and imposing austerity programs.
The 2008 financial crisis was entirely a product of the richest 1% of the human race; but soon after, national governments scrambled to punish the remaining 99% for the crisis instead, by slashing public services and imposing austerity programs.
by Abu Yahya July 10, 2010
Get the The Shock Doctrine mug.(ECONOMICS) international bank created after World War 2 to coordinate currency stabilization. Main policy tool consists of lending money to central bank of countries facing a liquidity crisis.
In some cases, as when a member government is insolvent, the IMF will impose a structural adjustment program (SAP) requiring the government to jettison programs it has to serve the poor. For this reason, the IMF is often harshly criticized.
In some cases, as when a member government is insolvent, the IMF will impose a structural adjustment program (SAP) requiring the government to jettison programs it has to serve the poor. For this reason, the IMF is often harshly criticized.
It is often said that the IMF makes economic crises worse by imposing the same austerity program everywhere, thereby further reducing a member state's ability to pay its sovereign debt.
by Abu Yahya May 05, 2010
Get the IMF mug.(ECONOMICS) when a government has to restructure spending by massively cutting social programs, development programs, and subsidies on basic necessities. Often accompanied by taxes increases, especially on lower incomes (since the poor cannot escape tax hikes).
Usually we use the term "austerity program" when the government in question has to backtrack on its ideological commitments. An example of this is France, after June 1982. The Socialist government of Mitterrand had just implemented a raft of major new social welfare programs, and was promptly forced to cut everything back when the deficit ballooned.
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