192 definitions by abu yahya
A choice between an alternative that is awful and one that is unacceptable. Usually defined as "no choice at all," since one of the choices is likely to be totally unacceptable (death, starvation, death of a loved one held hostage, insolvency).
A person whose relatives have been taken hostage is faced with the Hobson's choice of rewarding someone who attacked his family, and having his relatives killed because of decisions he made.
by abu yahya May 5, 2010
(FINANCE) borrowing securities for immediate sale, in anticipation of a sharp decline. Short selling requires strong nerves and excellent market timing; it also requires the ability to locate tranches of securities to borrow. If the short seller is correct, then she can buy back the securities at a much lower price, and lock in very high profits with very little initial investment.
Closely related to the concept of a short position. However, a short position includes buying put options (for example), while a long position could include short selling put options. So they are not exactly the same.
If a short sellers are wrong about the market, they are left hastily covering shorts, or buying the item they borrowed at a HIGHER price than they sold it for.
Closely related to the concept of a short position. However, a short position includes buying put options (for example), while a long position could include short selling put options. So they are not exactly the same.
If a short sellers are wrong about the market, they are left hastily covering shorts, or buying the item they borrowed at a HIGHER price than they sold it for.
Jim Fisk was a master of the short squeeze; he appeared to cooperate with short selling until he was able to call in loans, forcing his counterparties to cover their shorts.
by abu yahya September 2, 2010
Money that (a) derives its value entirely from the mandate of the government, and (b) cannot be freely traded. Fiat money is not the same thing as floating currency, because if a floating currency is intrinsically worthless then its lack of worth will be reflected in the forex markets. Fiat money, on the other hand, does not require a disciplined monetary of fiscal policy on the part of the issuing authorities; exchange rates are fixed by decree, which means the state also controls supplies of hard (foreign) currency.
by abu yahya August 4, 2008
(STATISTICS) a range of values for which you are x percent confident contains the correct answer. Answers to a statistical question which are ranged from the lowest likely value to the highest; answers outside of this range are highly unlikely.
Presupposes that you are estimating a value based on sample data, and the sample data has a genuinely random variance.
Usually the confidence interval is for a 95% confidence, meaning there is only a 5% probability that the true value is OUTSIDE the interval.
Presupposes that you are estimating a value based on sample data, and the sample data has a genuinely random variance.
Usually the confidence interval is for a 95% confidence, meaning there is only a 5% probability that the true value is OUTSIDE the interval.
ANNA: I've been driving your car for about a month.
JAMES: And what you think is the MPG?
ANNA: It's probably about 25 MPG, with a 95% confidence interval of 19.5 to 32 MPG.
JAMES: Holy cow! Any Prussians in your family tree?
JAMES: And what you think is the MPG?
ANNA: It's probably about 25 MPG, with a 95% confidence interval of 19.5 to 32 MPG.
JAMES: Holy cow! Any Prussians in your family tree?
by abu yahya April 23, 2010
(FINANCE) financial instrument in which buyer is someone who needs insurance against the possibility that a borrower will default on a loan. In that case, the counterparty is whoever receives the CDS premiums, and pays out in the event of default.
WHY IT'S BAD
Loans are usually made by either commercial banks (in which a loan officer is supposed to make a professional assessment of risk of default before handing over the money), or by investment banks (which underwrite securities like bonds). If the borrower has a high risk of default, then the loan should not be made--period.
Credit default swaps were a stupid method of supposedly turning a bad loan into a "risky" (and potentially high-yield) "investment"; they were in reality a strategy for fraud. Since portfolio managers knew they were bundling securitized loans that contained mostly crap, they would arrange credit default swaps and cash in when the borrowers defaulted.
WHY IT'S BAD
Loans are usually made by either commercial banks (in which a loan officer is supposed to make a professional assessment of risk of default before handing over the money), or by investment banks (which underwrite securities like bonds). If the borrower has a high risk of default, then the loan should not be made--period.
Credit default swaps were a stupid method of supposedly turning a bad loan into a "risky" (and potentially high-yield) "investment"; they were in reality a strategy for fraud. Since portfolio managers knew they were bundling securitized loans that contained mostly crap, they would arrange credit default swaps and cash in when the borrowers defaulted.
What the bankers hit on was a sort of insurance policy: a third party would assume the risk of the debt going sour, and in exchange would receive regular payments from the bank, similar to insurance premiums. JPMorgan would then get to remove the risk from its books and free up the reserves. The scheme was called a "credit default swap," and it was a twist on something bankers had been doing for a while to hedge against fluctuations in interest rates and commodity prices.
{Newsweek, "The Monster That Ate Wall Street," 27 Sep 2008}
{Newsweek, "The Monster That Ate Wall Street," 27 Sep 2008}
by abu yahya July 17, 2010
(FINANCE) a contractual obligation to buy or sell a fixed amount of a thing at a set price, at a specific time in the future.
Same as a futures contract.
Same as a futures contract.
SALES AGENT: I have this awesome product made in the USA I want to sell in Europe. It's cheap now, but what if the euro goes down against the dollar? I could lose a lot of money on inventory.
BROKER: No problem, just buy a future for the amount of US dollars you'll need to pay your suppliers.
SALES AGENT: You mean, a futures contract for dollars?
BROKER: Yes, a euro-pegged future for dollars. When the contract comes due, you pay the euros, they pay you the dollars, and BOOM! You're good to go. No risk.
BROKER: No problem, just buy a future for the amount of US dollars you'll need to pay your suppliers.
SALES AGENT: You mean, a futures contract for dollars?
BROKER: Yes, a euro-pegged future for dollars. When the contract comes due, you pay the euros, they pay you the dollars, and BOOM! You're good to go. No risk.
by abu yahya April 5, 2010
(FINANCE) on a financial derivative, the price at which the final transaction occurs. For example, the strike price of a call option is the price at which the owner of the option may buy the underlying item. If a call option is for 100 bbls of WTI crude oil at a strike price of $85.75/bbl, and the spot price is $86.50, then the option is worth (86.50 - 85.75) x 100 bbls = $75.
by abu yahya April 5, 2010