Wilford's Razor

Commonly worded as:

"The plausibility of any conspiracy theory is inversely proportional to the level of government hyper‑competence needed to maintain it"

Other wording:
"The plausibility of any conspiracy theory decreases as the level of government hyper-competence required to sustain it increases."

"The plausibility of any conspiracy theory is inversely proportional to the level of government hyper‑competence required to maintain it."

"The plausibility of any conspiracy theory is inversely proportional to the amount of government hyper‑competence it would require to plan, execute, and keep it secret."

In other words:
If a plot needs dozens of agencies to be flawless, leak‑proof, and perfectly coordinated for years… it probably didn’t happen.
Neighbor: “The mayor unleashed a raccoon crisis to distract from the budget meeting.”
You: “I'm invoking Wilford's Razor: City Hall can’t herd three councilmembers—let alone a raccoon militia.”
by Koffea August 12, 2025
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