The paradoxical chasm between the social-psychological explanation for why people believe in conspiracies (needing control, pattern-seeking, tribal identity) and the epistemic possibility that some of them could, in principle, be true. The problem is that the very tools we use to debunk false conspiracies (pointing out logistical improbability, lack of evidence, or psychological motives) cannot definitively prove a conspiracy doesn't exist, because a truly successful one would, by design, hide its evidence. This creates an unfalsifiable standoff where rationality feels powerless, and belief becomes a matter of faith in either institutional honesty or institutional omnipotence.
Example: "We laughed at the moon landing hoax theory, citing the sheer number of people needed to stay silent. But the hard problem of conspiracy theories hit when my friend said, 'A perfect conspiracy would look exactly like a perfect truth.' I had no logical reply, just a sudden, cold feeling that evidence itself might be a prank played by a universe with good op-sec."
by AbzuInExile January 31, 2026
Get the Hard Problem of Conspiracy Theories mug.