Dry Flat Road Fallacy

A logical fallacy representing the opposite of the slippery slope—the unwarranted assumption that a present bad situation, negative trend, or harmful policy will inevitably lead to positive outcomes in the future, without evidence for this optimistic trajectory. Where the slippery slope argues that a small step will lead to disaster, the dry flat road argues that current troubles are just a flat, featureless stretch that will eventually deliver us to sunny uplands. "Yes, inequality is rising, but it will eventually force systemic change that leads to justice." "Yes, the environment is degrading, but necessity will drive innovation that saves us." "Yes, working conditions are worsening, but this will radicalize workers and bring revolution." The fallacy lies in treating "it could get better" as "it will get better"—projecting desired outcomes onto the future without mechanism, evidence, or timeline. Like a dry flat road that seems to promise an easy journey but may lead anywhere, this fallacy comforts without justifying.

Example: "He dismissed every concern about authoritarian trends with 'this will eventually lead to a popular uprising that restores democracy'—Dry Flat Road Fallacy, treating a hoped-for future as inevitable just because the present is bleak."

by Dumu The Void March 17, 2026