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influenced by the economic theory of John M. Keynes (1883-1946); in particular, Keynes' book *The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money* (1936). The main point of Keynes' general theory (GT) was that market economies are not usually self-correcting, and occasionally require some sovereign intervention to prevent inflation or depression.
One of the policy prescriptions of the GT for curing recessions was to lower interest rates; another, more potent tool, was to deliberately run a fiscal deficit as a strategy for increasing aggregate demand. The GT was too late to have much of an impact on the Great Depression, but it did have a major impact on the economic policies of the Western Democracies from 1946 to the present.
During the period 1979 to 2001, Keynesianism was supposedly discredited, but national governments continued to use stimulus packages and monetary policy to resolve recessions. The policy has evolved, but remains the cornerstone of actually existing government behavior.
Attacks on Keynesianism: the most famous adversary of the GT was Friedrich von Hayek (1899-1992) of the London School of Economics, who insisted that an authentically free market would be self-correcting if it were only allowed to. Hayek's objections were ideological, but other economists such as John Muth argued that the GT expected people to make irrational, or unreasonable errors.
During the late 1970's, Keynesianism was eclipsed by the Rational Expectations Hypothesis; but REH failed to develop satisfactory policy proposals, while Neo-Keynesian economics evolved to address many of the original REH criticisms.
One of the policy prescriptions of the GT for curing recessions was to lower interest rates; another, more potent tool, was to deliberately run a fiscal deficit as a strategy for increasing aggregate demand. The GT was too late to have much of an impact on the Great Depression, but it did have a major impact on the economic policies of the Western Democracies from 1946 to the present.
During the period 1979 to 2001, Keynesianism was supposedly discredited, but national governments continued to use stimulus packages and monetary policy to resolve recessions. The policy has evolved, but remains the cornerstone of actually existing government behavior.
Attacks on Keynesianism: the most famous adversary of the GT was Friedrich von Hayek (1899-1992) of the London School of Economics, who insisted that an authentically free market would be self-correcting if it were only allowed to. Hayek's objections were ideological, but other economists such as John Muth argued that the GT expected people to make irrational, or unreasonable errors.
During the late 1970's, Keynesianism was eclipsed by the Rational Expectations Hypothesis; but REH failed to develop satisfactory policy proposals, while Neo-Keynesian economics evolved to address many of the original REH criticisms.
The treasury secretary wanted to respond to the inflationary spiral with a Keynesian strategy of tax increases, spending cuts, and interest rate hikes.
by Abu Yahya February 14, 2009
Get the Keynesian mug.(CINEMA || TELEVISION) technique in which an actor reads lines, but is not shown speaking the lines in the video stream. So, for example, we might see Martin Sheen lying in bed in a decrepit hotel in Saigon, and hear his voice say, "Saigon... shit! I was still in Saigon!" But he's narrating in the past tense, and the Martin Sheen onscreen is not saying anything. Or we might see Robert Duvall sitting on the beach, and Martin Sheen's disembodied voice, calmly recalling, "Well, he loved his men... Felt safe with them.."
It serves to fill in events in the story that the director doesn't want to depict on screen; it helps to describe how a character feels about events shown in the scene, or remind viewers that they are currently watching a flashback; it also has been used successfully to explain away absurd holes in the plot that would otherwise ruin the movie.
The voice over (VO) is particularly popular in US cinema and somewhat less so in British and Japanese; non-US movies that are conscious imitating Hollywood cliches will usually use it as well.
Usually, artistic movies made outside the English-speaking world tend to avoid using the VO because it's a non-traditional narrative technique, and it looks lazy. A good screenwriter doesn't need to use it. However, in commercials and TV "journalism" it is almost supernaturally powerful in persuading people of utter nonsense; it's basically a form of posthypnotic suggestion.
It serves to fill in events in the story that the director doesn't want to depict on screen; it helps to describe how a character feels about events shown in the scene, or remind viewers that they are currently watching a flashback; it also has been used successfully to explain away absurd holes in the plot that would otherwise ruin the movie.
The voice over (VO) is particularly popular in US cinema and somewhat less so in British and Japanese; non-US movies that are conscious imitating Hollywood cliches will usually use it as well.
Usually, artistic movies made outside the English-speaking world tend to avoid using the VO because it's a non-traditional narrative technique, and it looks lazy. A good screenwriter doesn't need to use it. However, in commercials and TV "journalism" it is almost supernaturally powerful in persuading people of utter nonsense; it's basically a form of posthypnotic suggestion.
The propaganda effect of commercials is massively enhanced by the use of voice over narration; usually the VO script is a grammatical mess and crammed with logical errors. This actually makes it work as a tool of brainwashing, since the logic cannot be followed by the listener.
by Abu Yahya July 15, 2010
Get the voice over mug.(FINANCE) the rate at which Federal Reserve System member banks lend reserves to each other. It is the one interest rate actually set by the Federal Reserve Board. The other rates, such for treasury securities, are set by auction.
Bank reserves are a fixed percentage of deposits held in reserve against sudden demand by the depositor. In some cases bank reserves take the form of deposits with a Federal Reserve Bank, like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.* Such deposits do not earn interest for the member bank, unless they are re-lent out at the federal funds rate.
"Federal funds" refers to emergency lending (overnight) among member banks so that the borrower can meet its reserve requirements. Reserves may include deposits with a Federal Reserve Bank which can be loaned by the member bank to another member bank (thereby earning interest).
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* Member banks in the FRS are regular national/state chartered banks, or investment banks. The FRS itself includes 12 Federal Reserve Banks, which actually do the financial work of the FRS.
Bank reserves are a fixed percentage of deposits held in reserve against sudden demand by the depositor. In some cases bank reserves take the form of deposits with a Federal Reserve Bank, like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.* Such deposits do not earn interest for the member bank, unless they are re-lent out at the federal funds rate.
"Federal funds" refers to emergency lending (overnight) among member banks so that the borrower can meet its reserve requirements. Reserves may include deposits with a Federal Reserve Bank which can be loaned by the member bank to another member bank (thereby earning interest).
__________________________
* Member banks in the FRS are regular national/state chartered banks, or investment banks. The FRS itself includes 12 Federal Reserve Banks, which actually do the financial work of the FRS.
by Abu Yahya September 4, 2010
Get the federal funds rate mug.*noun*; in Keynesian economics, the rate at which aggregate consumption rises in response to a rise in national income.
For example, suppose the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 0.95. If the national income is 100 billion dollars, and it rises 10%, then consumption will rise by 9.5 billion, and saving will rise by 0.5 billion.
If this theory is correct, then an expanding economy will suffer insufficient demand for its own output, and a recession will be inevitable.
This is why national governments respond to recessions with deficit spending: they are trying to counteract the MPC's effect on aggregate demand, and bring it in line with potential output.
For example, suppose the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 0.95. If the national income is 100 billion dollars, and it rises 10%, then consumption will rise by 9.5 billion, and saving will rise by 0.5 billion.
If this theory is correct, then an expanding economy will suffer insufficient demand for its own output, and a recession will be inevitable.
This is why national governments respond to recessions with deficit spending: they are trying to counteract the MPC's effect on aggregate demand, and bring it in line with potential output.
Not only is the marginal propensity to consume weaker in a wealthy community, but, owing to its accumulation of capital being already larger, the opportunities for further investment are less attractive...
J.M. Keynes, *The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money* (1936), Ch.3
J.M. Keynes, *The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money* (1936), Ch.3
by Abu Yahya March 3, 2009
Get the marginal propensity to consume mug.(FINANCE) borrowing securities for immediate sale, in anticipation of a sharp decline. Short selling requires strong nerves and excellent market timing; it also requires the ability to locate tranches of securities to borrow. If the short seller is correct, then she can buy back the securities at a much lower price, and lock in very high profits with very little initial investment.
Closely related to the concept of a short position. However, a short position includes buying put options (for example), while a long position could include short selling put options. So they are not exactly the same.
If a short sellers are wrong about the market, they are left hastily covering shorts, or buying the item they borrowed at a HIGHER price than they sold it for.
Closely related to the concept of a short position. However, a short position includes buying put options (for example), while a long position could include short selling put options. So they are not exactly the same.
If a short sellers are wrong about the market, they are left hastily covering shorts, or buying the item they borrowed at a HIGHER price than they sold it for.
Jim Fisk was a master of the short squeeze; he appeared to cooperate with short selling until he was able to call in loans, forcing his counterparties to cover their shorts.
by Abu Yahya September 2, 2010
Get the short selling mug.(FINANCE) an amount of precious metals, silver, cash, or other thing of value that a bank keeps in storage to meet unexpected liabilities.
Banks generally accept deposits and lend out money. The deference between the rate of interest paid out to deposits, and the rate of interest required for loans, is called "the spread"; it is the bank's source of income.
Banks are not allowed to lend out 100% of the money they receive as deposits; if they did, then depositors would be unable to take money out of the bank. On the other hand, the bank has to lend most of the money out, since it needs the income earned from interest on loans. Throughout the history of the Usonian banking system, the US states or the federal government have had rules about interest rates, reserves, and financial accounting used by banks.
Since Aldrich-Vreeland Act (1908), banks have been allowed to hold deposits with the US Treasury, then (after 1913) with the Federal Reserve System. Deposits in the FRS do not earn interest, but the reserve banks permit member banks to borrow if they fall short of the reserve requirements (see federal funds rate)
Banks generally accept deposits and lend out money. The deference between the rate of interest paid out to deposits, and the rate of interest required for loans, is called "the spread"; it is the bank's source of income.
Banks are not allowed to lend out 100% of the money they receive as deposits; if they did, then depositors would be unable to take money out of the bank. On the other hand, the bank has to lend most of the money out, since it needs the income earned from interest on loans. Throughout the history of the Usonian banking system, the US states or the federal government have had rules about interest rates, reserves, and financial accounting used by banks.
Since Aldrich-Vreeland Act (1908), banks have been allowed to hold deposits with the US Treasury, then (after 1913) with the Federal Reserve System. Deposits in the FRS do not earn interest, but the reserve banks permit member banks to borrow if they fall short of the reserve requirements (see federal funds rate)
Bank reserves serve two purposes: they allow banks to pay depositors on demand, and they play a role in monetary policy.
by Abu Yahya September 4, 2010
Get the bank reserves mug.*noun*; global economic collapse; in the USA, this began in 1929 and persisted to 1939; most other industrialized countries emerged from the Depression earlier.
During the Great Depression, unemployment reached over 25% in the USA, and those who had jobs suffered severe wage cuts. The index of industrial output fell over 53% from its high in July '29, while trade and capital markets plummeted to mere fractions of their former levels.
*What Happened*
_____________________________________
Many people imagine that the Stock Market Crash (Oct '29) and the Great Depression are the same thing. However, it took another three years for employment, bank failures, and declining industrial output to run its course.
In 1929 the USA had 25,000 banks. By 1933, 10,000 had either failed or been merged with another to avoid failure. At this time there was no FDIC, so depositors mostly lost their money.
Another phenomenon was plunging prices: the consumer price index fell 25% during the first four years. For businesses, this was a disaster, and forced them to lay off millions.
The Great Depression made farms in much of the Southwest unviable; ruined farmers fled to California or Washington, and their abandoned farms succumbed to the Dust Bowl. This was the single largest ecological disaster in recorded history.
*How It Happened*
_____________________________________
There are basically three main explanations for the Great Depression.
1. During the 1920's, there was a huge and growing disparity between rich and poor. The incomes of the great majority rose much more slowly than productivity, but this was masked by increased borrowing. People were able to borrow because the market value of their assets was larger than what they owed; but when a rash of defaults occurred, then the market value of assets plummeted, and people owed more than their assets were worth. Businesses had to lay off workers, which further reduced aggregate demand.
2. The Great Depression began as another minor downturn, but was made much worse by the failure of the Federal Reserve to respond adequately (see Milton Friedman & Anna Schwartz). While the Fed reduced interest rates, prices fell even faster, so real interest rates soared. This made a quick recovery impossible.
3. The financial markets (combined with Fed supervision) distributed capital badly; for example, speculative ventures in growing wheat in the Great American Desert, real estate in Florida, and so on. When this arrangement of productive resources failed, it constituted an extremely large technology shock. Subsequent policy intervention tended to withhold capital and labor from the most productive enterprises, making the depression deeper.
(Explanation 3 is the New Classical economics explanation; see Harold Cole & Lee Ohanian.)
*Roosevelt Administration*
_____________________________________
Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected by a landslide in 1932, and inaugurated 4 March 1933. The White House immediately used emergency powers to close, restructure, and re-open the nation's banks. During the first 100 days of the FDR administration, Congress passed the New Deal which greatly eased the impact of the Depression on the hardest hit.
The New Deal did not significantly hasten the end of the Great Depression, because it was too small to provide a meaningful fiscal stimulus. However, it did introduce many important programs to help those affected by poverty. The Depression had ended in most of the world by 1937; the US was mostly recovered by 1939, when World War 2 broke out.
During the Great Depression, unemployment reached over 25% in the USA, and those who had jobs suffered severe wage cuts. The index of industrial output fell over 53% from its high in July '29, while trade and capital markets plummeted to mere fractions of their former levels.
*What Happened*
_____________________________________
Many people imagine that the Stock Market Crash (Oct '29) and the Great Depression are the same thing. However, it took another three years for employment, bank failures, and declining industrial output to run its course.
In 1929 the USA had 25,000 banks. By 1933, 10,000 had either failed or been merged with another to avoid failure. At this time there was no FDIC, so depositors mostly lost their money.
Another phenomenon was plunging prices: the consumer price index fell 25% during the first four years. For businesses, this was a disaster, and forced them to lay off millions.
The Great Depression made farms in much of the Southwest unviable; ruined farmers fled to California or Washington, and their abandoned farms succumbed to the Dust Bowl. This was the single largest ecological disaster in recorded history.
*How It Happened*
_____________________________________
There are basically three main explanations for the Great Depression.
1. During the 1920's, there was a huge and growing disparity between rich and poor. The incomes of the great majority rose much more slowly than productivity, but this was masked by increased borrowing. People were able to borrow because the market value of their assets was larger than what they owed; but when a rash of defaults occurred, then the market value of assets plummeted, and people owed more than their assets were worth. Businesses had to lay off workers, which further reduced aggregate demand.
2. The Great Depression began as another minor downturn, but was made much worse by the failure of the Federal Reserve to respond adequately (see Milton Friedman & Anna Schwartz). While the Fed reduced interest rates, prices fell even faster, so real interest rates soared. This made a quick recovery impossible.
3. The financial markets (combined with Fed supervision) distributed capital badly; for example, speculative ventures in growing wheat in the Great American Desert, real estate in Florida, and so on. When this arrangement of productive resources failed, it constituted an extremely large technology shock. Subsequent policy intervention tended to withhold capital and labor from the most productive enterprises, making the depression deeper.
(Explanation 3 is the New Classical economics explanation; see Harold Cole & Lee Ohanian.)
*Roosevelt Administration*
_____________________________________
Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected by a landslide in 1932, and inaugurated 4 March 1933. The White House immediately used emergency powers to close, restructure, and re-open the nation's banks. During the first 100 days of the FDR administration, Congress passed the New Deal which greatly eased the impact of the Depression on the hardest hit.
The New Deal did not significantly hasten the end of the Great Depression, because it was too small to provide a meaningful fiscal stimulus. However, it did introduce many important programs to help those affected by poverty. The Depression had ended in most of the world by 1937; the US was mostly recovered by 1939, when World War 2 broke out.
The NBER business cycle chronology dates the start of the Great Depression in August 1929. For this reason many have said that the Depression started on Main Street and not Wall Street. Be that as it may, the stock market plummeted in October of 1929. The bursting of the speculative bubble had been achieved and the economy was now headed in an ominous direction.
Randall Parker, "An Overview of the Great Depression" (2002)
Randall Parker, "An Overview of the Great Depression" (2002)
by Abu Yahya March 6, 2009
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