Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
I used to hear this term used often when I was a technician with a computer company. We would use the term when we didn't know what to do to repair something or why we chose to replace a part on a hunch.
Technician Tom: You fixed it! How did you know to replace the bridge rectifier?
Technician Bob: I didn't know. I just took my best SWAG.
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