In swimming or track, the athlete in the farthest lane is the slowest qualifier of the heat. He or she is expected to lose the race because he or she qualified in last place. When he or she wins the race in an upset, this type of underdog victory is designated as the "outside smoker"
"I thought that swimmer in lane 7 was sure to get last, but he surprised everyone with that come-from-behind victory. What a racer! What a beast! THAT is what we call an outside smoker!"